Clap Louder - No Magic Left in the Kingdom

How long will the world's Disney parks be dark?  Disney is the industries bell weather and as Disney goes, one can assume so go Universal, Six Flags and likely a large number of smaller regional/local amusement parks.  Imagine the opportunities for the coronavirus in situations like these.  Industry analysts opinions on reopening dates vary, but one at financial giant UBS is not optimistic of any Disney magic in 2020.

John Hodulik, the managing director of investment research at global financial firm UBS, estimated that health and economic concerns would keep the parks closed through 2020 in his report, titled "The Eye of the Storm." 

"We believe Parks' profitability will be impaired for a longer period of time given the lingering effects of the outbreak and now assume an opening date of Jan. 1 as our base case," Hodulik wrote. "That said, the economic recession plus the need for social distancing, new health precautions, the lack of travel and crowd aversion are likely to make this business less profitable until there is a widely available vaccine."

Worldwide Disney properties attract nearly 160 million visitors annually - averaging over 430,000 visitors per day.  Providing a safe environment for even a fraction of those individuals is going to be a massive task, assuming that people are willing to put themselves and their families at risk either in travel to or attendance at these parks.

Recent research shows the potential of the coronavirus for airborne transmission.   The virus can infect a large number of people in a short time as this study from a restaurant in China shows.

In this case the individual noted as A1 was asymptomatic on January 24, but the virus she carried was broadcast, in part by the restaurants air conditioning to both her companions at her table and to five other people at adjoining tables.  Does anyone every  visit a restaurant at Disneyland?

In another detailed study of airborne transmission, the capacity of the virus to infect a large number of people who spent time in close proximity to each other at a Korean call center certainly makes the idea of standing in long lines in shoulder to shoulder with a large number of people less than appealing.  

Workers in one section of the call center transmitted the virus to the extent that 94 of 216 ended up testing positive for Covid-19.  The critical factor was proximity.

There are millions of Disneyholics out there who visit the various manifestations of the Magic Kingdom faithfully and multiple times per year, often staying at Disney  hotels and spending multiple days at the parks.  They might still be willing to put their lives and the lives of their children on the line, but are their enough of them to keep the lights on?  Will they still be excited about a day at the park if they have to sign a waiver of liability form upon entry indemnifying Disney if they end up in the hospital due to a Covid-19 infection?

Those hardcore Disneyholics are going to need lots of counseling and therapy over the next eight months if Mr. Hodulik analysis is correct.